The Next New Birds for New Mexico (2018 predictions)

With 2017 winding down, I decided to take a moment and (possibly) start a new tradition. In the spirit of the periodic segment in ABA's Birding magazine "The Next New ABA Birds" I decided to take a crack at guessing the next most probable additions to New Mexico's official list of ornithological occurrences. I also threw in several bonus species towards the end that I believe are good candidates for new ABA species that could come from New Mexico first.
The rules are similar to those used by the ABA Birding lists in that:

1. Species currently under review by the New Mexico Bird Records Committee cannot be included. However, if the committee made a decision about a record of a particular species and rejected it, that species can be included here.
2. Species that currently have a feral population that may eventually warrant "countable" status (e.g. Egyptian Goose in Curry County or Monk Parakeet in Dona Ana County) may not be included.
3. Species currently recognized as a single species but that may eventually be split (e.g. the Red Crossbill complex or Bell's Vireo) are not to be included.

These birds aren't in a particular order, though I feel the first two are particularly overdue. I also do not expect all or any of these species to necessarily be added to the list in 2018, though going forward I feel they are worth looking for. I also tried to include species that are possible in a wide variety of areas in the state (rather than just possible Mexican vagrants such as Blue Mockingbird or Tufted Flycatcher).
So without further adieu, lets get onto the list!

1. Snowy Owl (Bubo scandiacus)
     Likely one of the most over-due species for the state, at this time of writing New Mexico and Arizona remained the only states in the union without a Snowy Owl (yes, even Hawaii has had one!) With the beginnings of an irruption in winter of 2017/2018 brewing, will this be the year New Mexico finally gets a snowy? The most likely place for this species would probably be the northeastern portion of the state (Union or Colfax counties?) but this species has been known to show up in bizarre places. A fan of large open areas, airports and ag fields seem to be particular favorites for this species during southern irruption years. Basically, any open areas (or the tops of buildings)north of I-40 should be scanned with careful eyes. Even south of I-40 it is worth scrutinizing farm fields, there are many records in other states (including Florida) that lie south of the imaginary "I-40" line.

Snowy Owl (B. scandiacus)

Barrow Cemetery, North Slope, AK

Jul. 2016

Wyatt Egelhoff

2. Alder Flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum)
     In a perfect world, this species wouldn't even be on this list. I know several birders that have seen and heard Alder Flycatcher in New Mexico, some on multiple occasions. The problem is purely a technicality- this species has never been recorded vocalizing in the state. It seems every time an Alder has kindly decided to give a diagnostic vocalization, it has gotten stage fright the moment microphones are turned on. While certainly rare in the state (as far as we can tell), it seems only a matter of time before someone eventually manages to record a singing bird while it migrates through in the spring (probably from the eastern side of the state).

Alder Flycatcher (E. alnorum) 

NARL (Barrow), North Slope, AK

Jul. 22, 2017

Wyatt Egelhoff

3. Plain-capped Starthroat (Heliomaster constantii)
     One of the many species that is recorded with some regularity in adjacent Arizona but has avoided confirmed detection in New Mexico. There are reports of this species from the Animas Mountains, but photos have yet to be produced. Given that this species seems to be increasingly regular in Arizona, it seems eventually one will be detected in New Mexico. The problem lies in the lack of well established hummingbird feeders in the bootheel (southern Hidalgo county). Unlike Arizona, there is a paucity of B&B-type establishments that can be consistently monitored from July to September when most Starthroats are detected in AZ. It seems the most likely places would be the Chiricahua Desert Museum (which has a dedicated feeder), or a birder happening upon one in the Peloncillos (Guadalupe or upper Cottonwood Canyon). Given the relative scarcity of observers, adding this particular species to the state list may take some work (or a Hidalgo homeowner photographing one at a private feeder).

Plain-capped Starthroat (H. costantii)

Santa Rita Lodge (Madera Canyon), Santa Cruz County, AZ

Aug. 9, 2016

Wyatt Egelhoff

4. Least Grebe (Tachybaptus dominicus)
     Recorded in both Arizona and Texas (where it is a regular breeder in the LRGV), this southern species has occurred quite close to Southern NM in both El Paso, TX (several records) and Andrews, TX. It has also been noted several times in AZ as close as Willcox. The most obvious places for this species would be quite, overgrown ponds/marshes in the southern part of the state. Given the propensity for Bosque Del Apache NWR to attract exceptional vagrant marsh birds (which are then detected), it seems that would be as likely a place as any to host a Least Grebe.

Least Grebe (T. dominicus) 

Hueco Tanks SP & Historic Site, El Paso County, TX

Aug. 19, 2017

Wyatt Egelhoff

5. Great Black-backed Gull (Larus marinus)
     While this species has occurred tantalizingly close, it may be a while before New Mexico adds this particular gull to its list. There have been several Great Black-backed Gulls overwintering in southern Colorado in recent years (as well as several records across the state), so it would seem only a matter of time until a particularly cold winter would force one southward. The problem is that at least the current returning GBBG is frequenting a cooling lake for a power plant, and so the water remains more or less ice-free all year.
Even so, this species has shown its ability to show up at least with some regularity in Colorado, and gulls in general have a habit of showing up in out-of-the-ordinary places (New Mexico's Black-tailed Gull (Larus crassirostris) for example). There are much fewer birders per square mile in NM than in CO, and fewer observers still who jump at the chance to stare at gulls for long periods of time, so while the current NM list has several odd gull species on it (and I certainly commend those who regularly take the time to sift through wintering gulls), it seems this may be the taxa where NM could add the most species.

Great Black-backed Gull (Larus marinus) range map

(eBird)

6. Slaty-backed Gull (Larus schistisagus) 
     As was mentioned above, gulls have a propensity to show up in unexpected places. While this East Asian species is most frequently encountered in western AK (when detected in the US), there are a fair number of records from the west coast of the Lower 48, as well as our neighboring state of TX.

For a species often thought of as being a Pacific coast specialty, there are a surprising number of Slaty-backed Gull (Larus schistisagus) records from the Lone Star State.

(eBird)

Once again, these gulls could theoretically show up anywhere. Granted, any dark-mantled gull in NM is probably unusual and deserves a second look, so it seems unlikely an adult-aspect Slaty-backed (or Great Black-backed) would fly under the radar if detected. Unfortunately, young Slaty-backeds could be overlooked as being on of the other "white-headed" gulls (Herring or perhaps Iceland), so all large immature gulls may be worth further scrutiny.

Adult Slaty-backed Gull (Larus schistisagus) poorly captured

Barrow, North Slope, AK

Jul. 17, 2017

7. Ringed Kingfisher (Megaceryle torquata)
     This may seem like an odd choice for several reasons. Its been a long time since New Mexico has seen another Green Kingfisher (Chloroceryle americana), and Ringed is often thought of as being a Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) specialty. I decided to include this species because not only has Ringed continued to expand northward into the LRGV since the first time it was detected in the 1970's, but it also has shown a propensity to wander. Most of its recorded wandering has been east of the LRGV, though there are several records closer to NM including one record near Amarillo (TX) and another near Odessa (TX).

Ringed Kingfisher (Megaceryle torquata) range

(eBird)

The most probable location for this species seems like somewhere along the Rio Grande (Bosque Del Apache NWR or somewhere in Sierra/Dona Ana counties) or in the Southeastern portion of the state along the Pecos River. In fact, the species has been recorded with some regularity as far north as the confluence of the Pecos/Rio Grande Rivers. Unlike its miniscule cousin the Green Kingfisher, Ringed are large, noisy, and often perch conspicuously, so the likelihood of detection (given a birder happens to bird the area while the bird is present) seems relatively high.

Pecos River overlook at the confluence with the Rio Grande near Langtry, TX 

Dec. 10, 2017

8. Fork-tailed Flycatcher (Tyrannus savanna)
    Another seemingly unlikely species, and while there are certainly a few other species that may be more likely, this species has shown a pattern of showing up in unexpected places. While most records are centered around the Northeastern US (the likely product of reverse "mirror-migrant" individuals that in the fall went northeast instead of southeast).

Records of Fork-tailed Flycatcher (Tyrannus savanna) north of the US/Mex border 

(eBird)

There are also a fair number of Gulf Coast records and even a record for Lake Balmorhea. While in truth this species could show up anywhere in the state, the Southeastern quadrant seems as good a place as any.

9. Red-necked Stint (Calidris ruficollis)

Red-necked Stint (Calidris ruficollis)

Utqiagvik (Barrow), North Slope, AK

Jun. 12, 2017

This is another case where the species on the New Mexico list are somehow less expected than the counterpart that remains unrecorded. Jerry Oldenettel discovered a Little Stint (Calidris minuta) at Bitter Lake NWR on May 31, 2005 during his record-setting New Mexico Big Year. This record is even more remarkable considering the relative paucity on inland records for this species compared to its rufescent cousin, the Red-necked Stint. The difficulty in identifying non-breeding calidrids may be part of the reason this species has yet to be found in the state. Obviously, the most likely places for this species to be discovered would be areas with large concentrations of shorebirds (such as Bitterlake NWR or good old Bosque del Apache NWR). That being said, this species could be found just about anywhere, so it pays to sift through all those pesky peeps.

10.Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula)
     Another possibly unexpected species, I myself was surprised in looking into where this species has been reported. I had thought of them as being mostly a coastal species, but it has also occurred in Colorado, Arizona, Arkansas, and Nebraska. Waterfowl (like gulls) are ideal candidates for vagrancy in the southwest because limited water means that vagrants are often concentrated/localized in areas that are watered. This species is more or less likely to show up in any of New Mexico's reservoirs, though I certainly wouldn't bet against it showing up at some nondescript Sewage Treatment lagoon either. The biggest problem with detecting this species will probably be sifting through many other Aythya ducks to locate it (unless perhaps it arrives as the sole individual on a sewage pond). So if ever there was a motivation to count every duck, this might be it.

Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula) records (specifically the interior US) 

(eBird)

Runner ups:
Brown Booby (Sula leucogaster)
     This species has begun breeding in California waters and has recently increased along the middle and southern coast of Texas. Inland Brown Boobies in TX have become a semi-regular sight, so it may not be a bad idea to check some eastern lakes after the next large Hurricane to hit the Gulf of Mexico. With one Sulid already on the state list (Blue-footed Booby (Sula neblouxii), why not make it two?

Ross's Gull (Rhodostethia rosea)/Ivory Gull (Pagophila eburnean)
    As was explained for the other gulls on this list, gulls can show up just about anywhere. Fortunately, both of these attractive species are distinctive enough in all plumages that confusion with other species seems unlikely.

Ross's Gull (Rhodostethia rosea) 

Half Moon Bay, San Mateo Co. California

Jan. 12, 2017

Ultimately, no one knows what the next state bird will be, and more than anything this post is aimed at putting a few species on the radar.
I would definitely urge more birders to spend some time searching through gulls (I can sense the collective groan), but I feel this is the group that has the most species "missing" from the state list. If some of the gulls that *are* on the state's list are any indication, anything is possible! I would also like to thank my fellow New Mexico birders for constantly exploring and sharing information. The relatively low number of birders/square mile is part of what makes NM birding such a challenge and so much fun.

And with that, I am finishing the last of my packing for a weekend in the Northeastern portion of the state. With Snowy Owls and Common Redpolls on the move, who knows what's in store.

Happy 2018!